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Thoughts On The Market | Where are we going?

Some facts

  • inflation is damn high
  • fed increases interest
  • war in Ukraine
  • energy crisis in Europe
  • reminder, sock market and crypto had an amazing 2021 year
  • Q1 2022, markets are down all over the place
  • crypto is corelated with stonks in Q1

Now what?

As for the stonks, previous history indicate two weeks recovery period after the interest rate increase ... better times for stonks in June? Long term it depends on the global events, no.1 the war in Ukraine. A lot of people are mentioning the word stagnation instead of recession. Personally not sure what to think about stonks, 2022 seems to positioned to go down.

Now for crypto. This is something we are all following on a daily basis, and after 5 years maybe there is something that we can feel and tell on subconscious level without even getting in the hard data :)

The bad news is that everything seems to be indicating a down trend, if Q1 was not enough :) This being crypto we all know it can go down more. It doesn't mean a bad thing if you have some stables around.
I personally think we cant go down as before, (80% correction for BTC), because institution are now in play. This said 50% correction for BTC will be around 34k, and 70% around 20k. Meaning small chances to drop bellow 30k in 2022, with some ultimate bottom at 20k, except a black swan event (examp. nuclear third world war).

The good news is we are yet to see massive institutional adoption for BTC, especially the spot ETF in the US for BTC. There are a lot of indications that this is possible to happen in the following months, and if this happens it can make possible for trillions to flow in BTC. Another fact is that now we have more then 170B in stablecoins, unlike the few billions back in 2017.

2022 seems a mixed bag for crypto, the general market trends indicates downtrend, while the possible institutional and general adoption might cause uptrend. The amount of capital in stablecoins also indicates better support then the previous bear.

I personally hold around 30% of my portfolio in stablecoins and I'm dollar cost averaging in and out of the market on a monthly basis. Last years I was mostly selling (mostly alts, not BTC), while starting from January this year I'm buying small chunks each month, BTC and alts, maintaining the stablecoins share.

This is just some short thoughts I wanted to consolidate on the market. Not a financial advice :)

What are your thoughts on the market and do you have any strategy going forward?

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img from Pixabay

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