So it would appear that Woolwich are set to pull off one of the biggest transfer deals of the window to date in signing Gabriel Jesus for a reported £45million from Man City.
Is he a good acquisition for the Gooners?
Certainly forward players were always likely to be a priority for a club that has released it's 2 primary strikers over the last 6 months leaving them with just the inexperienced Eddie Nketiah to lead the line.
However, "leading the line" hasn't really been something that Jesus has ever shown he is particularly capable of doing.
Take for example the fact that during the 2021/22 season he played as a centre forward in 14 of Man City's Premier League fixtures including in 13 out of their final 25 league games and he managed to score in just 2 of those matches! Hardly setting the world on fire ...
Given that Man City went into last year without an out and out centre forward, you might expect Jesus to have gotten a better run out in that position but actually his game time as centre-forward last season was the joint lowest it has been in any of the 5 full seasons he's played for City since joining them. Obviously Pep Guardiola isn't convinced of the Brazilian's abilities in that regard either...
| Season | Premier League mins played as CF |
|---|---|
| 2017/18 | 1441 |
| 2018/19 | 911 |
| 2019/20 | 1767 |
| 2020/21 | 1866 |
| 2021/22 | 911 |
Jesus EPL minutes played as a centre forward
Versatility of course is one of Jesus' qualities and undoubtedly helped him gain minutes while a member of a star studded City squad. He played 952 mins as a right sided forward player last year (more mins than as a centre forward) and scored big goals against Liverpool, Chelsea and indeed Arsenal from that position.
However, his chances of game time from that position seem slim given that arguably Arsenal's best player in Bukayo Saka prefers the same role. In fact, Saka who appeared in every Premier League game for Arsenal last season started just 5 of those matches away from the right-wing (all were on the opposite flank) and during those games Arsenal managed just 4 goals and 7 points. Trying to accommodate Jesus on the right by moving Saka would come with similar risks.
Indeed, it makes the Gooner's alleged pursuit of Leeds forward Raphina, another player who prefers to operate off the right even more bizarre! How many right wingers were they planning on starting in games next season?
Perhaps though the most damming statistic about the abilities of Jesus as a striker come when you look at his goals scored vs expected goals scored.
For those not in the know, expected goals scored is a statistic used to anticipate the number of goals either a player or team would usually be expected to score across either a match or indeed a whole season based on factors leading up to an attack that ultimately ends with the player taking a shot. For example, whether the shot was from inside or outside the box, whether it was on their stronger or weaker foot, the circumstances of the attack itself, etc, etc.
In the past 5 years, Jesus has failed to equal or better his expected goals tally in every single Premier League season.
| Season | Premier League goals scored | Expected Premier League goals | Dif |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | 13 | 15.37 | -2.37 |
| 2018/19 | 7 | 12.62 | -5.62 |
| 2019/20 | 14 | 21.02 | -7.02 |
| 2020/21 | 9 | 9.65 | -0.65 |
| 2021/22 | 8 | 10.15 | -2.15 |
| Total | 51 | 68.81 | -17.81 |
Jesus EPL goals scored vs expected goals by season
To put that into contrast we can look at the records of the other Premier League players who have scored 50 or more goals in the same period and compare it with their expected goals over those 5 years.
Only Raheem Sterling with a negative difference of 4.37 in goals vs expected goals and former Gooner Lacazette who did maintain a positive difference until his woeful final season when he netted just 4 league goals, have scored fewer goals than they would be expected to over the last half a decade of football and neither of them come close to recording the negative difference of 17.81 that Jesus managed.
| Player | EPL goals since 17/18 | Expected EPL Goals since 17/18 | Dif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salah | 118 | 112.2 | +5.80 |
| Kane | 105 | 99.14 | +5.86 |
| Vardy | 91 | 83.22 | +7.78 |
| Sterling | 78 | 82.37 | -4.37 |
| Mane | 77 | 74.52 | +2.48 |
| Son | 75 | 57.09 | +17.91 |
| Aubameyang | 68 | 66.41 | +1.59 |
| Aguero | 62 | 57.80 | +4.2 |
| Lacazette | 54 | 54.18 | -0.18 |
| Mahrez | 50 | 38.23 | +11.77 |
Other Top 10 goal EPL scorers over the last 5 seasons and their expected goals
The net result is that across a season you can expect Jesus to leave 2 or 3 expected goals out on the pitch while by contrast most of the top forwards in the league are delivering a goal or 2 more than statistics would suggest.
If those stats continue into next year then it would equate to at least a 4 or 5 goal swing in favour of Arsenal's league rivals. It might not seem much but having your main goal threat score when the odds are against them could well be the difference in winning or losing a match and in a league as tight as the EPL, every point counts...
Stats complied from transfermarkt and [understat] (https://understat.com/league/EPL)