Good day Hiveians!
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This is a continued update on SPS - the splinterlands token!
After reaching into the 80 cents range some weeks ago we have seen a 55% correction to about 40 cents. This area has quite a bit support from the first two subwaves. The second one is marked with an oval on the left of this chart. For this reason I think that SPS should stabilize in this area. The other reason is that the thrid subwave (the right oval in the chart) closely resembles the second subwave; it is therefore a continued fractal that, by the looks of it, is coming to an end. And when one fractal ends, a new one starts. This could therefore mark an end of the corrective price action and a beginning of a new impulse wave. If prices were to fall even more (20-30 cents), we would at large be in a bear market. However, the current crypto market tells us that this is not the case. By that logic I think (and as a third reason) that prices should stabilize around 40 cents.
SPS is different to other tokens as to the daily airdrop that is still ongoing as well as the vouchers that players received who stakes their SPS. These highlight two opposed dynamics: With the voucher airdrop coming to an end, many players will buy their pre-sale packs with SPS, and thereby burning SPS which has a deflationary affect on price. The continued airdop (with almost 300 days remaining), however, has an inflationary effect. This second effect is bigger than the first, and it is probably also why the corrective phase of the second fractal has been so great: Many people are selling their SPS which puts downwards pressure on price.
I should therefore modify my comparision of SPS to AXS (axie infinity) which I have argued could predict future price action. I still contend that SPS has huge upward potential. Simply by being the most played and professional blockchain game out there. Both games also have similar stats, e.g., a similar supply. However, it seems that by giving out SPS to many players, this will put long term pressure on price so that SPS will more slowly "climb the ladder". I still think that 10$ is just waiting to happen. But it will perhaps take longer than I first expected.
Putting in some trend lines, once again shows us the fractals. I think a breakout to the top is just waiting to happen. If confirmed, price should bounce off the trend line and then reach for higher highs.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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