Good day Hiveians!
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This is going to be a bit of a longer post as I want to share an insight in regards to the Hive/BTC chart
Normally we look at the Hive/USD(T) chart, but a look at Hive in relation to the price of Bitcoin can give an interesting insight as well. Before we dive into it, I wanted to very briefly recap my last post. In it I pointed to the potential for Hive to retest the long trend line established over the last year. With a minor market correction over the last days we did just that. Prices have briefly went sub $1 and retested the trend line seen in the chart below. To the left you can see where I think we are at the bigger scale. Back in summer of 2021 prices gradually climbed higher which I think is what should happen again.
Now to the Hive/BTC chart
The chart as a whole with the main trend lines looks like this:
There is a parallel channel which has been established for over a year now and there is the resistance coming form the previous ATHs. Additionally, and the most important insight is the almost horizontal line that intersects the channel in the middle. I am arguing that this is a main divisor for the chart as a whole. In the following chart you can see this more clearly. On the macro scale prices established itself briefly above this line in the green area. Then prices dipped below that for over a year in the blue area. Gradually prices kept climbing until breaching this line and currently we are back in the green area. Having retested this line (and there is some more room to retest it again in the next days/weeks), prices should be supported by this line and establish a potential for a higher target.
What makes this so interesting in my opinion is that this exact shape (fractal) happened before already. On the weekly chart it is not possible to spot it so let's zoom in. But before we do that the following chart circles the two areas which I argue are a fractal of one another:
The circle on the left is seen here on the 4h chart. Can you spot the similarities to the bigger fractal seen in the chart above? Notice the upward channel and the horizontalish line dividing the fractal into two pieces (like the green and blue area above). To me it is almost a perfect replica. If so, we can use this fractal for future price predictions (that at least is my theory).
What is clear is that we can see a 3 wave pattern almost everywhere in the chart.
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The 3 wave pattern is even more visible in the bigger fractal seen here. I am not sure if I have ever seen the 3 wave pattern as strong as in this fractal:
So what happened after this fractal (the 3 wave pattern) completed? Prices jumped up by more than 700%! My idea is that we could potentially see something similar again.
How high could prices go?I see two potential targets. Target 1 is kind of crazy... it would be a 30x; target 1 would be much less dramatic - it would merely stay in the range of the upper limit of the channel. I have based target 1 on a "trend based fib extension" which is made by using the fib ratio for two price differences. If we apply the first fractal's ratios to the second, we get the target 1 at about 0.001 Hive/BTC. Target 2 is based on the channel and would give us about a 0.0001 HIVE/BTC price ratio. Interestingly, this could be roughly equivalent to $100 or 10$ Hive as I would expect BTC to reach about 100k in this summer. Seems like quite the target... but who knows...
Finally, this is the path that would occur if these scenarios would play out. Target 1 seems very ambitious and target 2 more reasonable. However, I just wanted to the idea out there. Let me know what you think!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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