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Use This Oxford Uni Tool To Show Your Risk of Death From COVID19: Mine Is 0.0024%!

If you ever wondered what the statistical chance of you contracting or dying from COVID19 are, the Oxford University COVID19 Risk Factor Calculator might be the fun tool for you!

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With so many people being terrified of getting sick and even dying from SARS CoV2 (COVID19) and perhaps being panicked - not knowing what to do to best stay safe - 'trusting the science' can help plan out key decisions. Clearly, though, there is no single arbiter of Science - Science is not a simple coin operated machine with a big red button to press in order to receive 'the answer'. Science is a method for finding truth and it often involves differing thoughts by different scientific minds being promoted and debated, often for years.

Statistical analysis is often used to try to make sense of our reality and while it is not 100% accurate (though, paradoxically, this particular statistic IS 100% accurate) - it does at least help to put situations into perspective, providing it is used well. What statistics cannot do is take into account your own will and the uniqueness of your own subjective reality - you can always be an outlier or create a reality that the statistics don't account for at all.

In the case of the risk of death or illness from COVID19, it seems that many people are sure that the risk to them is huge. This is not really very likely to be true. One of the key reasons for this is that a lot of statistics used in the media are 'relative' calculations and not 'absolute' calculations. In other words, the statistics tend to measure risk in comparison to something else, such as the risk of death once diagnosed with COVID19 or some other factor. Absolute risk calculations are the total risk when we fully zoom out our perspective and take all things into consideration.

In my own case, based on data from the early waves of the COVID19 phenomena, the absolute risk of me dying from COVID19 (setting aside the various debates about how accurate the testing for COVID19 was - because there were huge problems with the data) is:

0.0024% or 1 in 41667

So if there were 41667 version of me on Earth, all with identical basic details, such as age and gender - then only one of us would be likely, statistically to die from COVID 19. You could loosely say then that I have 41667 COVID19 'lives'. Somewhat more impressive than a cat's 9 lives.

The chances of my hospitalisation are:

0.0336% or 1 in 2976

Given that I have never been hospitalised for anything remotely like COVID in my life, have never spent more than a few hours in hospital in one go for anything at all and haven't set foot in one as a patient for over 15 years (since I took full responsibility for my own health), I feel confident that 'this' version of me will be one of the 2975 that is just fine.

Obviously, you personally might not be so fortunate, statistically, but even so - the chances are that most people will have a very low risk of having any problems. Try it for yourself!

With all of this in mind and considering the nature of the posts I have been making since COVID19 began, exposing all kinds of 'controversies' which discredit the panic spreading mass media (who gradually have to change their tune as more evidence comes forward to back up what I am saying), I implore all to pause to reassess what they might believe already about COVID19.

Having watched countless harrowing videos of people paralysed and dying FROM THE VACCINE and NOT from COVID19 - I implore all to consider the real risk of harm they are playing with from both sides here.

Further Related Reading


If you haven't already seen them, my related recent posts are very informative:



Wishing you well,
Ura Soul






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